Ao aterrorizar cristãos, EI tenta fomentar "guerra" ao Ocidente
Além de propaganda, "Estado Islâmico" busca incitar ódio religioso para
criar instabilidade nos países onde atua. Tática também pode elevar
islamofobia na Europa, o que cria terreno fértil para radicalização de
jovens.
Cristãos em fuga após expansão do "Estado Islâmico" no Iraque
Ainda não se sabe o que "Estado Islâmico" (EI) fará com os cerca de 220
cristãos raptados de vilarejos no norte da Síria nos últimos dias. Uma
das possibilidades é que eles sejam trocados por jihadistas presos.
Outra é que tenham o mesmo destino de outros reféns, e morram de forma
brutal nsa mãos da organização terrorista.
O EI poderá demonstrar mais uma vez que declarou guerra aos cristãos e ao cristianismo em todo o mundo. O significado disso foi vivenciado, recentemente, por 21 cristãos coptas. Eles foram raptados pelos jihadistas na Líbia e, pouco depois, decapitados diante das câmeras.
Para os jihadistas, decapitações são apenas o prelúdio de uma luta maior – que, atualmente, é travada ao sul do Mediterrâneo, mas ameaça eclodir a qualquer momento também mais ao norte.
"Vamos conquistar Roma", disse um dos carrascos encapuzados numa praia da Líbia, com a faca na mão, apontando para a Europa.
"Muçulmanos governados por muçulmanos"
A declaração não foi gratuita. No segundo semestre de 2014, o EI divulgou a quarta edição de sua revista Daqib. O nome alude a uma cidade no norte da Síria, que é mencionada na Hadith – a narrativa dos atos do profeta que, junto ao Alcorão, forma a base da "sharia", a lei islâmica. De acordo com a tradição, pouco antes do fim do mundo, ali serão travadas batalhas decisivas entre muçulmanos e cristãos.
Capa da revista do EI
Para a quarta edição de sua revista, os redatores escolheram
uma capa marcante: ela mostra uma bandeira negra jihadista tremulando
sobre a Praça de São Pedro, no Vaticano. Em dezembro, o líder do EI,
Abu-Bakr al-Baghdadi, declarou que sua organização quer conquistar Roma
com "a bênção de Alá".
A justificativa religiosa para a empreitada anticristã foi apresentada já em 2007 pela organização antecessora do EI, o "Estado Islâmico do Iraque" (EII). Na época, o EII divulgou a sua carta de fundação. Ela tinha o título Notificação aos fiéis sobre a criação do Estado Islâmico.
Baseando-se num provérbio do profeta Maomé, os autores explicam que os muçulmanos deveriam ser governados por muçulmanos. Se três seguidores do islã vivem num lugar, eles devem nomear um comandante, diz a carta.
Além disso, para a salvação dos muçulmanos, seria imperativo viver numa região em que fosse aplicada a sharia. Como os textos canônicos não fazem menção ao tamanho da área ocupada pelos sunitas, não há limites para ela. Ou seja: os extremistas reivindicam para si o mundo - ou qualquer lugar onde esteja um muçulmano.
O território islâmico, diz o texto, deve crescer como nos primórdios da religião. E essa região conquistada será considerada automaticamente território do califado. A expansão acontece com base em três princípios: nikayah (terrorismo e destruição); tawwahush (brutalidade impiedosa) e tamkin (estabelecimento do califado).
Círculo fatal
Cristão do norte do Iraque defendem seu território contra o "Estado Islâmico"
Segundo o historiador irano-americano Hamid Dabashi, com os
ataques direcionados contra cristãos, o EI persegue quatro objetivos.
Primeiramente: os cristãos estão entre as populações mais antigas do Oriente Médio. Como tal, eles são um dos símbolos mais visíveis da diversidade multicultural e multiconfessional da região, o que o EI pretende destruir.
Em segundo lugar, os ataques direcionados contra minorias como os cristãos, xiitas e yazidis têm como objetivo incitar os grupos religiosos uns contra os outros e, dessa forma, minar a estabilidade interna dos diferentes países.
O terceiro objetivo se aplica aos ataques das potências ocidentais – União Europeia e EUA. O EI quer que os ataques provoquem intervenções, o que contribuiria para dar uma aparente credibilidade à afirmação do EI de que o islã se encontra em guerra com o resto do mundo.
Igreja católica em Mossul
Por outro lado, o Ocidente tende a interpretar os ataques
contra os cristãos como um ataque contra si mesmo. Neste caso, explica
Dabashi, é ignorado o fato de que a maioria das vítimas da organização
terrorista é formada por cristãos árabes.
Em quarto lugar, continua Dabashi, os ataques contra as minorias religiosas seriam uma tentativa de restaurar a aura de invencibilidade, que foi bastante abalada com a derrota em Kobane. Isso também ajuda a manter o EI presente na mídia ocidental.
Seria possível ainda acrescentar que, no Ocidente, há o perigo de que os atos terroristas contra os cristãos possam vir a aumentar a islamofobia. Isso poderia fazer, por sua vez, com que alguns muçulmanos venham a se radicalizar e a se mostrar abertos ao ideário jihadista.
Isso daria início a um círculo fatal, que se fortaleceria cada vez mais pela interação entre ação e reação – pelo menos até o ponto em que a estratégia do EI seja desmantelada.
O EI poderá demonstrar mais uma vez que declarou guerra aos cristãos e ao cristianismo em todo o mundo. O significado disso foi vivenciado, recentemente, por 21 cristãos coptas. Eles foram raptados pelos jihadistas na Líbia e, pouco depois, decapitados diante das câmeras.
Para os jihadistas, decapitações são apenas o prelúdio de uma luta maior – que, atualmente, é travada ao sul do Mediterrâneo, mas ameaça eclodir a qualquer momento também mais ao norte.
"Vamos conquistar Roma", disse um dos carrascos encapuzados numa praia da Líbia, com a faca na mão, apontando para a Europa.
"Muçulmanos governados por muçulmanos"
A declaração não foi gratuita. No segundo semestre de 2014, o EI divulgou a quarta edição de sua revista Daqib. O nome alude a uma cidade no norte da Síria, que é mencionada na Hadith – a narrativa dos atos do profeta que, junto ao Alcorão, forma a base da "sharia", a lei islâmica. De acordo com a tradição, pouco antes do fim do mundo, ali serão travadas batalhas decisivas entre muçulmanos e cristãos.
Capa da revista do EIA justificativa religiosa para a empreitada anticristã foi apresentada já em 2007 pela organização antecessora do EI, o "Estado Islâmico do Iraque" (EII). Na época, o EII divulgou a sua carta de fundação. Ela tinha o título Notificação aos fiéis sobre a criação do Estado Islâmico.
Baseando-se num provérbio do profeta Maomé, os autores explicam que os muçulmanos deveriam ser governados por muçulmanos. Se três seguidores do islã vivem num lugar, eles devem nomear um comandante, diz a carta.
Além disso, para a salvação dos muçulmanos, seria imperativo viver numa região em que fosse aplicada a sharia. Como os textos canônicos não fazem menção ao tamanho da área ocupada pelos sunitas, não há limites para ela. Ou seja: os extremistas reivindicam para si o mundo - ou qualquer lugar onde esteja um muçulmano.
O território islâmico, diz o texto, deve crescer como nos primórdios da religião. E essa região conquistada será considerada automaticamente território do califado. A expansão acontece com base em três princípios: nikayah (terrorismo e destruição); tawwahush (brutalidade impiedosa) e tamkin (estabelecimento do califado).
Círculo fatal
Cristão do norte do Iraque defendem seu território contra o "Estado Islâmico"Primeiramente: os cristãos estão entre as populações mais antigas do Oriente Médio. Como tal, eles são um dos símbolos mais visíveis da diversidade multicultural e multiconfessional da região, o que o EI pretende destruir.
Em segundo lugar, os ataques direcionados contra minorias como os cristãos, xiitas e yazidis têm como objetivo incitar os grupos religiosos uns contra os outros e, dessa forma, minar a estabilidade interna dos diferentes países.
O terceiro objetivo se aplica aos ataques das potências ocidentais – União Europeia e EUA. O EI quer que os ataques provoquem intervenções, o que contribuiria para dar uma aparente credibilidade à afirmação do EI de que o islã se encontra em guerra com o resto do mundo.
Igreja católica em MossulEm quarto lugar, continua Dabashi, os ataques contra as minorias religiosas seriam uma tentativa de restaurar a aura de invencibilidade, que foi bastante abalada com a derrota em Kobane. Isso também ajuda a manter o EI presente na mídia ocidental.
Seria possível ainda acrescentar que, no Ocidente, há o perigo de que os atos terroristas contra os cristãos possam vir a aumentar a islamofobia. Isso poderia fazer, por sua vez, com que alguns muçulmanos venham a se radicalizar e a se mostrar abertos ao ideário jihadista.
Isso daria início a um círculo fatal, que se fortaleceria cada vez mais pela interação entre ação e reação – pelo menos até o ponto em que a estratégia do EI seja desmantelada.
http://m.jpost.com/Middle-East/Last-vestiges-of-Syrian-Jewry-clinging-to-community-444906#article=6017QUFCMzdBNkRBMDRBQkM0RTAyREI2RjQwNUREMTkyOUY=
“All of the Jews that wanted to leave Syria left some time ago,” Prof. Eyal Zisser, a leading expert on Syria from the Moshe Dayan Center at Tel Aviv University, told the Post.
Most of them left in the 1990s as part of an agreement between the US and Syrian governments, he said. “Those that remained are elderly Jews due to the difficulty of changing places along with their environment.
They requested to end their lives in Damascus and now they found themselves stuck in a war,” continued Zisser.
Asked if their lives are at risk, Zisser responded that he did not think the Jews in Damascus are in immediate danger as “surely the regime has no interest in dealing with them.”
“As long as the regime controls Damascus their lives are assured,” he said, noting that of course daily life is difficult because of the war. “But it was their choice to stay in Syria at the time.”
Mendi Safadi, an Israeli Druse political activist in touch with the dwindling Jewish community of Damascus, shared pictures and messages from them with the Post.
“There remain around 16 elderly Jews over 70 in Damascus that are suffering from food shortages and economic difficulties because of the war,” he said. “Their health and economic situation as well as the risk, make it very difficult for them to leave.”
He said that his contact in the Jewish community told him the synagogue in the Jewish quarter of Damascus only opens for two hours on Shabbat.
In addition, Safadi said his contact told him about internal strife with one member of the community allegedly trying to sell the community’s assets.
Prof. Yaron Harel, an expert of the history of the Jews in Syria from Bar-Ilan University, told the Post that just last week UNESCO recognized Israel’s Aleppo Codex as a world treasure and that it had been kept for centuries in the Great Synagogue of Aleppo, “now in danger of being destroyed.”
Written in northern Israel around 930 CE, the codex has a storied and transient history. It was smuggled into Israel from Syria 60 years ago, and since then 200 of the original 500 pages have mysteriously disappeared.
Harel noted that according to tradition the Aleppo synagogue was built around 3,000 years ago by the commander of King David’s army, Yoav ben-Zeruyah.
The synagogue has been empty for almost 20 years and Harel is afraid it is going to be destroyed amidst the ongoing war just as another historical synagogue in the Damascus suburb of Jobar was destroyed in 2014.
“As far as I know, there are no Jews left in Aleppo. Historically, Jews lived in the two main Syrian cities of Aleppo or Damascus,” he said.
Asked about the Jews of Damascus, Harel responded, “For centuries, Jews lived in the poorest quarter of Damascus. Even when the Ottoman Empire sought to develop the country at the beginning of the 20th century it did not touch the Jewish sector.”
Jews that had lived in Syria since before the edict of expulsion of Jews from Spain in 1492 and those Sephardic Jews that came to Syria in small numbers afterwards ended up taking over from the local Jewish tradition and prayer, he said.
Unlike Sephardic Jews that went to Turkey, he continued, those that settled in Syria did not continue speaking the Spanish-Judeo language of Ladino, but adopted Arabic.
On the other hand, the local Jewish population adopted the Sephardic halakha. “Torah scholars came from Spain and their level was much higher than the locals. They also were very educated in the sciences and general knowledge,” added Harel.
JTA contributed to this report.
http://news.trust.org/item/20160219153053-oudqm/
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/yemen/12171785/Yemen-is-becoming-the-new-Syria-and-Britain-is-directly-to-blame.html
Yemen is under siege.
A Saudi-led coalition has been bombing the country on a daily basis for
nearly a year. For months now, a battle has been raging in Taiz, where
the UN has accused Houthi fighters and their allies of blocking
desperately needed humanitarian supplies to the town of 200,000.
Meanwhile, Aden, the only area coalition forces have so far managed to
“liberate” (in July last year), is beset by lawlessness. The conflict
has spread across the entire country. Today, civilians are suffering in
the fighting tearing Yemen apart, with casualties now topping 8,100,
more than 60 per cent as a result of Saudi-led coalition airstrikes.
Twenty of Yemen’s 22 governorates are precariously poised on the verge
of devastating famine.
This is hardly surprising. Unlike in Syria, the UK and US are two of the primary causes of the problem in Yemen. Put simply, a coalition of the wealthiest Arab states have joined forces to bomb and starve one of the poorest, with the assistance of two of the world’s richest and most powerful powers.
In my five years of covering Yemen, international headlines have morphed from optimism to despair. In the early weeks of the Arab Spring, everyone was hailing “Yemen: the peaceful revolution”. Today, as the country reckons with its gravest crisis in decades, the main story has become “Yemen: the forgotten war.”
Countries that once welcomed Yemenis without a visa, such as Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon, have closed their doors. Anyone seeking a visa will soon discover none of these countries have functioning embassies in Yemen today.
Thousands of Yemenis have managed to flee to Djibouti by boat. Many do not survive the extremely perilous journey, while those who do are met with the most tepid of welcomes. With no official refugee camps in the country and hotels charging exorbitant rates, the majority return.
Yemeni supporters of the southern seperatist movement fire towards Huthi rebels during clashes in the city of Aden Photo: Saleh Al-Obeidi/AFP/Getty Images
Supporters of the separatist Southern Movement hold a position during clashes with Shiite Huthi rebels in Aden, Yemen Photo: Saleh Al-Obeidi/AFP/Getty Images
Indeed, as the war rages on, the country’s infrastructure and institutions are falling apart. Unemployment rates are at a record high, with business at a standstill jobs have disappeared, while almost half the country’s university students have dropped out, offering fertile recruitment opportunities for extremist groups such as Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and the newly-emerged Islamic State in Yemen.
Today, the country has become a lawless wasteland where militarised extremism is flourishing at an alarming rate, and it won’t be long before this turns into an international headache rather than a local one. After a decade during which Yemen was a main battleground of the US’s War on Terror, regularly held up as a success story in the media, the dark irony of the country’s descent into chaos, and out of the headlines, has not been lost on local observers.
Soldiers loyal to Yemen's government jump off a truck during a training exercise in the country's southwestern city of Taiz Photo: Reuters
A Saudi soldier fires a mortar towards Houthi movement position at the Saudi border with Yemen Photo: Reuters
Alas, this is not merely about Western indifference but about complicity and collusion. Last October, Britain and the US successfully blocked plans for a UN independent investigation into potential war crimes committed by Saudi Arabia in Yemen. This was a unique opportunity to hold all sides of the conflict accountable for their actions. Instead, Saudi Arabia has been allowed to investigate itself through its own internal commission.
Of course, this is not about denigrating the suffering of Syrians, which has been immense, but to highlight the forgotten, ongoing tragedy in Yemen and how the failure of the media to inform the public of the nature and extent of their government’s role in one of the world’s greatest humanitarian catastrophes today has made it much easier for the US and Britain to pursue their disgraceful support for an indefensible war.
So the next time you hear British and US diplomats express outrage at the heartless carnage in Syria – as they should – remember what they want you to ignore: that there is another nation, and another people, suffering just as much. Except that when it comes to Yemen’s tragedy, both Britain and the US are partly, but directly, to blame.
[compartilhado por Fabricio Souza]
The last Jews in Damascus
Expert: As long as Assad controls Damascus, their lives will remain protected.
Expert: As long as Assad controls Damascus, their lives will remain protected.
Photo by: Courtesy
Israeli experts and an activist in contact with the remaining Jews in Damascus painted a bleak picture to The Jerusalem Post.“All of the Jews that wanted to leave Syria left some time ago,” Prof. Eyal Zisser, a leading expert on Syria from the Moshe Dayan Center at Tel Aviv University, told the Post.
Most of them left in the 1990s as part of an agreement between the US and Syrian governments, he said. “Those that remained are elderly Jews due to the difficulty of changing places along with their environment.
They requested to end their lives in Damascus and now they found themselves stuck in a war,” continued Zisser.
Asked if their lives are at risk, Zisser responded that he did not think the Jews in Damascus are in immediate danger as “surely the regime has no interest in dealing with them.”
“As long as the regime controls Damascus their lives are assured,” he said, noting that of course daily life is difficult because of the war. “But it was their choice to stay in Syria at the time.”
Mendi Safadi, an Israeli Druse political activist in touch with the dwindling Jewish community of Damascus, shared pictures and messages from them with the Post.
“There remain around 16 elderly Jews over 70 in Damascus that are suffering from food shortages and economic difficulties because of the war,” he said. “Their health and economic situation as well as the risk, make it very difficult for them to leave.”
He said that his contact in the Jewish community told him the synagogue in the Jewish quarter of Damascus only opens for two hours on Shabbat.
In addition, Safadi said his contact told him about internal strife with one member of the community allegedly trying to sell the community’s assets.
Prof. Yaron Harel, an expert of the history of the Jews in Syria from Bar-Ilan University, told the Post that just last week UNESCO recognized Israel’s Aleppo Codex as a world treasure and that it had been kept for centuries in the Great Synagogue of Aleppo, “now in danger of being destroyed.”
Written in northern Israel around 930 CE, the codex has a storied and transient history. It was smuggled into Israel from Syria 60 years ago, and since then 200 of the original 500 pages have mysteriously disappeared.
Harel noted that according to tradition the Aleppo synagogue was built around 3,000 years ago by the commander of King David’s army, Yoav ben-Zeruyah.
The synagogue has been empty for almost 20 years and Harel is afraid it is going to be destroyed amidst the ongoing war just as another historical synagogue in the Damascus suburb of Jobar was destroyed in 2014.
“As far as I know, there are no Jews left in Aleppo. Historically, Jews lived in the two main Syrian cities of Aleppo or Damascus,” he said.
Asked about the Jews of Damascus, Harel responded, “For centuries, Jews lived in the poorest quarter of Damascus. Even when the Ottoman Empire sought to develop the country at the beginning of the 20th century it did not touch the Jewish sector.”
Jews that had lived in Syria since before the edict of expulsion of Jews from Spain in 1492 and those Sephardic Jews that came to Syria in small numbers afterwards ended up taking over from the local Jewish tradition and prayer, he said.
Unlike Sephardic Jews that went to Turkey, he continued, those that settled in Syria did not continue speaking the Spanish-Judeo language of Ladino, but adopted Arabic.
On the other hand, the local Jewish population adopted the Sephardic halakha. “Torah scholars came from Spain and their level was much higher than the locals. They also were very educated in the sciences and general knowledge,” added Harel.
JTA contributed to this report.
http://news.trust.org/item/20160219153053-oudqm/
Fridges and flour: Syrian refugees boost Turkish economy
Source: Reuters - Fri, 19 Feb 2016 15:28 GMT
Author: Reuters
A Syrian boy looks through a
gate as others wait to cross into Syria at Oncupinar border crossing in
the southeastern city of Kilis, Turkey February 11, 2016. REUTERS/Osman
Orsal
* Refugees fuelling growth through consumer spending
* Ankara has told EU it will stem migrant flow to Europe
* Refugee influx has also raised prices and job competition
By Nevzat Devranoglu
ISTANBUL, Feb 19 (Reuters) - Turkey's 2.6 million Syrian refugees may be straining the housing and jobs systems, but they're also fuelling economic growth.
The world's largest refugee population has had a positive impact on Turkish output, economists and government officials say. It may be partly responsible for an unexpected rise in third-quarter growth and stronger forecasts for 2016 output.
The migrants, fleeing a civil that has raged for five years, have bought goods such as refrigerators and cookers, a well as cooking oil, bread, flour and building materials.
While most Syrians have not been given work permits and end up working illegally, the money they spend nevertheless feeds into the economy. The government also says it has spent almost $10 billion since the start of the conflict, mostly on refugee camps, pumping more cash into goods and services.
Much of the public debate in Turkey about the economic effects of the influx has so far centred on negative aspects such as how it has increased competition for low-paid work in a country with a jobless rate of over 10 percent, and driven up food prices and rents.
Signs that refugees are beginning to boost growth, potentially creating jobs in the long term, would be welcome news for a government struggling to integrate the migrants and seeking to make good on promises to stem their flow to Europe in return for cash and a revival of EU accession talks.
"We have reasonable facts and evidence that either spending by 2.6 million Syrian refugees or by government has been one of the key drivers behind the positive surprise in economic growth in 2015," said Muammer Komurcuoglu, an economist at Is Investment.
A senior economy official also told Reuters the Syrian refugees were supporting growth via consumer spending.
The government is due to release its official 2015 growth figures in March. Deputy Prime Minister Mehmet Simsek has referred to third-quarter growth figures of 4 percent as a "positive surprise". After the release of the third-quarter figures, the government later revised up its expectations for 2016 growth to 4.5 percent from 4 percent.
'NO FREE LUNCH'
Assessing the contribution of Syrian migrants - who mostly fend for themselves outside refugee camps - is difficult since at least some of their spending is rooted in the cash-based, informal economy.
One way it can be loosely estimated, say economists, is by using the "starvation line", which is set by the Turkish Trade Union Confederation and represents the bare minimum the average person would need to spend to avoid starvation - 346 lira ($117) a month.
Based on this, Turkey's 2.6 million Syrians are spending at least 346 lira a month, equivalent to 0.5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). That would rise to as much as 1.7 percent of GDP if calculations were based on the "poverty line" of 1,128 lira a month - a measure of the minimum income deemed adequate, including access to resources considered essential such as clothes, electricity and basic transportation.
But the influx of refugee is pushing up prices, particularly for food and rent and in areas with large refugee populations.
Annual consumer prices rose to 9.58 percent in January in Turkey as a whole, but in border areas such as Gaziantep, Adiyaman and Kilis the rate was 10.67 percent.
"There is no free lunch in the economy," Komurcuoglu said. "This positive growth surprise comes at a cost on the inflation and unemployment fronts."
Simsek has said the main economic challenge this year would be battling inflation, a task made more difficult by a 30 percent rise in the minimum wage that went into effect this year.
JOBS AND WAGES
Until recently refugees have not had the right to work legally. Now a new law has been enacted to give them permits with certain limitations over where and in which sectors they can work. In addition, refugees cannot make up more than 10 percent of a company's workforce.
Some refugees with access to money when they arrived have set up their own firms, but many more - an estimated 300,000 - are thought to be working informally. That has lowered some wages and pushed some Turkish labourers out of the work force.
"The inflow of informally employed Syrian refugees leads to large-scale displacement of Turkish workers from the (large) informal sector, around 6 natives for every 10 refugees," the World Bank said in a recent paper.
However, the lower production costs should eventually help boost output and increase the demand for formal workers, leading to an extra three Turks employed for every 10 refugees, it said.
A senior economy official confirmed that more than 2.5 million refugees were supporting growth via consumer spending, hoping that with increasing numbers actually producing in the economy, the pressures on inflation may be alleviated.
"Migrants from Syria were consumers only until recently. This was creating inflationary pressure," the senior economy official said. "Now they are being given the right to work, and this will cause unemployment but also ease the pressure on inflation because they will be in the production process."
($1 = 2.9687 liras) (Writing by Dasha Afanasieva; Editing by David Dolan and Pravin Char)
* Ankara has told EU it will stem migrant flow to Europe
* Refugee influx has also raised prices and job competition
By Nevzat Devranoglu
ISTANBUL, Feb 19 (Reuters) - Turkey's 2.6 million Syrian refugees may be straining the housing and jobs systems, but they're also fuelling economic growth.
The world's largest refugee population has had a positive impact on Turkish output, economists and government officials say. It may be partly responsible for an unexpected rise in third-quarter growth and stronger forecasts for 2016 output.
The migrants, fleeing a civil that has raged for five years, have bought goods such as refrigerators and cookers, a well as cooking oil, bread, flour and building materials.
While most Syrians have not been given work permits and end up working illegally, the money they spend nevertheless feeds into the economy. The government also says it has spent almost $10 billion since the start of the conflict, mostly on refugee camps, pumping more cash into goods and services.
Much of the public debate in Turkey about the economic effects of the influx has so far centred on negative aspects such as how it has increased competition for low-paid work in a country with a jobless rate of over 10 percent, and driven up food prices and rents.
Signs that refugees are beginning to boost growth, potentially creating jobs in the long term, would be welcome news for a government struggling to integrate the migrants and seeking to make good on promises to stem their flow to Europe in return for cash and a revival of EU accession talks.
"We have reasonable facts and evidence that either spending by 2.6 million Syrian refugees or by government has been one of the key drivers behind the positive surprise in economic growth in 2015," said Muammer Komurcuoglu, an economist at Is Investment.
A senior economy official also told Reuters the Syrian refugees were supporting growth via consumer spending.
The government is due to release its official 2015 growth figures in March. Deputy Prime Minister Mehmet Simsek has referred to third-quarter growth figures of 4 percent as a "positive surprise". After the release of the third-quarter figures, the government later revised up its expectations for 2016 growth to 4.5 percent from 4 percent.
'NO FREE LUNCH'
Assessing the contribution of Syrian migrants - who mostly fend for themselves outside refugee camps - is difficult since at least some of their spending is rooted in the cash-based, informal economy.
One way it can be loosely estimated, say economists, is by using the "starvation line", which is set by the Turkish Trade Union Confederation and represents the bare minimum the average person would need to spend to avoid starvation - 346 lira ($117) a month.
Based on this, Turkey's 2.6 million Syrians are spending at least 346 lira a month, equivalent to 0.5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). That would rise to as much as 1.7 percent of GDP if calculations were based on the "poverty line" of 1,128 lira a month - a measure of the minimum income deemed adequate, including access to resources considered essential such as clothes, electricity and basic transportation.
But the influx of refugee is pushing up prices, particularly for food and rent and in areas with large refugee populations.
Annual consumer prices rose to 9.58 percent in January in Turkey as a whole, but in border areas such as Gaziantep, Adiyaman and Kilis the rate was 10.67 percent.
"There is no free lunch in the economy," Komurcuoglu said. "This positive growth surprise comes at a cost on the inflation and unemployment fronts."
Simsek has said the main economic challenge this year would be battling inflation, a task made more difficult by a 30 percent rise in the minimum wage that went into effect this year.
JOBS AND WAGES
Until recently refugees have not had the right to work legally. Now a new law has been enacted to give them permits with certain limitations over where and in which sectors they can work. In addition, refugees cannot make up more than 10 percent of a company's workforce.
Some refugees with access to money when they arrived have set up their own firms, but many more - an estimated 300,000 - are thought to be working informally. That has lowered some wages and pushed some Turkish labourers out of the work force.
"The inflow of informally employed Syrian refugees leads to large-scale displacement of Turkish workers from the (large) informal sector, around 6 natives for every 10 refugees," the World Bank said in a recent paper.
However, the lower production costs should eventually help boost output and increase the demand for formal workers, leading to an extra three Turks employed for every 10 refugees, it said.
A senior economy official confirmed that more than 2.5 million refugees were supporting growth via consumer spending, hoping that with increasing numbers actually producing in the economy, the pressures on inflation may be alleviated.
"Migrants from Syria were consumers only until recently. This was creating inflationary pressure," the senior economy official said. "Now they are being given the right to work, and this will cause unemployment but also ease the pressure on inflation because they will be in the production process."
($1 = 2.9687 liras) (Writing by Dasha Afanasieva; Editing by David Dolan and Pravin Char)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/yemen/12171785/Yemen-is-becoming-the-new-Syria-and-Britain-is-directly-to-blame.html
Yemen is becoming the new Syria – and Britain is directly to blame
Our support for the brutal Saudi Arabian intervention is creating a lawless wasteland where extremist groups like Isil can thrive
A boy shouts slogans as he raises a gun
during a rally against US support to Saudi-led air strikes, in Yemen's
capital Sana'a, February 19, 2016 Photo: REUTERS/Mohamed al-Sayaghi
"Tell the world!” the old lady pleaded with me. “We are being slaughtered!”
A few feet away from us, in the heart of the Yemeni capital Sana’a,
stood the remains of an apartment complex. It had been hit by two
successive airstrikes only minutes earlier.
“They have destroyed our homes, killed our sons…what did we do to
them?” the woman cried before collapsing into my arms, her embrace
growing tighter as she wept.
"Despite horrific human rights abuses this war has not captured
the attention of the Western public at anywhere near the level Syria
has"
Everywhere I went, from
the Internally Displaced Persons camps to primary schools that had been
turned into makeshift shelters, I was quickly surrounded as soon as
people spotted my camera. Everyone offered the same plea: for someone to
tell their story to the world.
This
broke my heart, because I didn’t have the guts to tell them the simple,
blunt truth: that beyond its borders, very few people care about Yemen.
Despite horrific human rights abuses, including war crimes committed by
all parties to the conflict, being documented for months, this war has
not captured the attention of the Western public at anywhere near the
level Syria has.
"Unlike in Syria, the UK and US are two of the primary causes of the problem in Yemen."
And yet, while the Syrian tragedy occupies front
pages and news bulletins worldwide, the humanitarian catastrophe
engulfing Yemen for the past year continues to meet with indifference.
It's not hard to find news stories about what is happening there, but it
is difficult to find a politician who puts it on their agenda or a
voter who views it with any concern. This is hardly surprising. Unlike in Syria, the UK and US are two of the primary causes of the problem in Yemen. Put simply, a coalition of the wealthiest Arab states have joined forces to bomb and starve one of the poorest, with the assistance of two of the world’s richest and most powerful powers.
In my five years of covering Yemen, international headlines have morphed from optimism to despair. In the early weeks of the Arab Spring, everyone was hailing “Yemen: the peaceful revolution”. Today, as the country reckons with its gravest crisis in decades, the main story has become “Yemen: the forgotten war.”
Refugees and IDPs
I’m continuously asked: if the situation is so catastrophic, why haven't we seen Yemenis fleeing in their millions, like the Syrians? The short answer is that Yemenis are trapped. When the war began on March 26th, all of the country’s exit ports were instantly closed and a blockade imposed on the movement of people as well as goods, both in and out of the country.Countries that once welcomed Yemenis without a visa, such as Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon, have closed their doors. Anyone seeking a visa will soon discover none of these countries have functioning embassies in Yemen today.
Thousands of Yemenis have managed to flee to Djibouti by boat. Many do not survive the extremely perilous journey, while those who do are met with the most tepid of welcomes. With no official refugee camps in the country and hotels charging exorbitant rates, the majority return.
Yemeni supporters of the southern seperatist movement fire towards Huthi rebels during clashes in the city of Aden Photo: Saleh Al-Obeidi/AFP/Getty ImagesRampant militarisation
Some have ascribed the international focus on Syria to the presence of Al-Qaeda and Isil in the country. These are headline-grabbing organisations which capture the attention of the Western public. But this is precisely where the situation in Yemen is heading too.
"Today, the country has become a lawless wasteland where militarised extremism is flourishing at an alarming rate."
The same short-sighted mistakes that have brought
Syria to the brink of collapse are now being repeated in Yemen. For
instance, since the start of the conflict, the Saudi-led coalition has
been arming the Popular Resistance group in Aden and in Taiz. Although
the media keeps calling them "Hadi loyalists" (in reference to the
Yemeni president, currently in exile in Saudi Arabia), evidence suggests
many of their members are actually from groups such as Isil and AQ. Supporters of the separatist Southern Movement hold a position during clashes with Shiite Huthi rebels in Aden, Yemen Photo: Saleh Al-Obeidi/AFP/Getty ImagesIndeed, as the war rages on, the country’s infrastructure and institutions are falling apart. Unemployment rates are at a record high, with business at a standstill jobs have disappeared, while almost half the country’s university students have dropped out, offering fertile recruitment opportunities for extremist groups such as Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and the newly-emerged Islamic State in Yemen.
Today, the country has become a lawless wasteland where militarised extremism is flourishing at an alarming rate, and it won’t be long before this turns into an international headache rather than a local one. After a decade during which Yemen was a main battleground of the US’s War on Terror, regularly held up as a success story in the media, the dark irony of the country’s descent into chaos, and out of the headlines, has not been lost on local observers.
Soldiers loyal to Yemen's government jump off a truck during a training exercise in the country's southwestern city of Taiz Photo: ReutersComplicity in war crimes
The media disparities between Syria and Yemen were highlighted again this month. When a Doctors Without Borders (MSF) hospital in Northern Syria was hit by Russian bombs, the uproar in the Western media was deafening, and rightly so. “It is certainly a war crime.” declared Andrew Mitchell, formerly Secretary of State for international Development, on the Today Programme the morning after. “Everyone knew it was an MSF hospital,” he continued, ”and so undoubtedly this goes against international humanitarian law.”
"Last October, Britain and the US successfully blocked plans for a
UN independent investigation into potential war crimes committed by
Saudi Arabia in Yemen."
He was right, of course, but I could not help but
note that no less than three MSF Yemeni hospitals had been hit by
airstrikes in the past few months, one of which the Saudis have already
admitted to. There was little coverage of them in the West, let alone
outright outrage and condemnation. A Saudi soldier fires a mortar towards Houthi movement position at the Saudi border with Yemen Photo: ReutersAlas, this is not merely about Western indifference but about complicity and collusion. Last October, Britain and the US successfully blocked plans for a UN independent investigation into potential war crimes committed by Saudi Arabia in Yemen. This was a unique opportunity to hold all sides of the conflict accountable for their actions. Instead, Saudi Arabia has been allowed to investigate itself through its own internal commission.
Of course, this is not about denigrating the suffering of Syrians, which has been immense, but to highlight the forgotten, ongoing tragedy in Yemen and how the failure of the media to inform the public of the nature and extent of their government’s role in one of the world’s greatest humanitarian catastrophes today has made it much easier for the US and Britain to pursue their disgraceful support for an indefensible war.
So the next time you hear British and US diplomats express outrage at the heartless carnage in Syria – as they should – remember what they want you to ignore: that there is another nation, and another people, suffering just as much. Except that when it comes to Yemen’s tragedy, both Britain and the US are partly, but directly, to blame.
[compartilhado por Fabricio Souza]
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